With flurries fluttering all around, the runs came in as such when Jordany Valdespin led off the game with a bloop single to left. Daniel Murphy doubled to put them both in scoring position and David Wright's double made it 2-0 quickly off Minnesota starter Vance Worley. After Ike Davis walked, John Buck converted his blazing hot start into a bit of luck as a hard groundball to third went through the wickets of Trevor Plouffe. After a Marlon Byrd two-run single two batters later, the visitors had a commanding 5-0 lead.
After the Twins responded with a couple runs in the bottom of the 1st, the Mets kept the train a-rollin' in the 2nd, when Valdespin, Murphy, and Wright produced deja-vu singles to make it 6-2. Davis drew another walk, this one of the 10-pitch variety, to bring up Buck, who left no doubts on who the hottest baseball player on the planet is with a second-deck grand slam to left. After adjusting his beard on the steps, Buck descended into the dugout with the following marks:
(NYDailyNews.com)
Buck's six home runs on the season have now surpassed the home run totals of all Mets catchers during the entire 2012 season.
He has hit home runs in four consecutive games, one shy of Richard Hidalgo's franchise record, making him the first Met to accomplish the foursome since David Wright in June 2007.
Buck's 19 RBIs are the most any player has ever driven in during his first 10 games with a new team. The mark is also the second most in Amazin' history, five shy of Jeff Kent's April 1994 record of 24 ribbies. And we're still closer to April Fool's Day than May Day.
Buck's heroics relegated these outstanding offensive lines to page two:
Jordany Valdespin - 2-5, 3 R, 1 RBI
Daniel Murphy - 4-5, 2 2B, 3 R, 4 RBI (mostly courtesy of a bases-clearing two-bagger in the top of the 7th)
David Wright - just a HR shy of the cycle, Captain America's line read 3-5, 2B, 3B, 2 R, 4 RBI (doubling his total for the season)
Even New York's 7-8-9 tandem of Marlon Byrd, Mike Baxter, and Ruben Tejada combined to do great things, collectively going 5-15 with three runs.
Jonathon Niese's 22-game streak of six or more innings ended as he only lasted five frames, giving up five runs (four earned) on five hits, four walks, and a strikeout on 101 pitches. This can be excused for two reasons: first, the snowy weather was playing tricks on both starters; second, scoreboard. The result: W #2 of the season for Niese.
Ruben Tejada's defensive woes continued as a throwing error in the 5th clocked him up to five E6s on the young season. It took him until July 23 to get to that many last year.
Final Analysis:
Said Keith Hernandez on tonight's SNY telecast about John Buck, "I don't think I've seen anyone hotter out of the shoot." Amen, brother. So I'll talk about the rest. Sure, the Minnesota Twins may have some of the worst pitching in baseball (Philadelphia outcast Vance Worley was their Opening Day starter), but they've still managed to win four games so far, so our boys must have been doing something right. In any other situation we'd be singing the praises of a red-hot Daniel Murphy, but instead he takes a backseat to the white-hot Buck. When either of them cool off is yet to be seen, but if they both keep it up for another week or so, they may be battling each other for NL Player of the Month for April. Because just imagine how good they'll be when they don't have to play in (mini) blizzard-like conditions. Whoa baby.
The last time Jeremy Hefner faced Philadelphia, he failed to get a single out. This time he didn't fare much better, letting the first six guys get on base (Ben Revere was caught stealing second) and allowing five earned runs before getting an out himself. Like Dillon Gee the night before him, Hef was gone after the 3rd inning.
The New York offense couldn't do nearly enough against Kyle Kendrick, whose only damage came on two solo home runs spread over six innings. The 2-4 guys in the order (Daniel Murphy, David Wright, Ike Davis) combined to go 0-11 with a walk and four strikeouts.
Lance Nix victimized New York's LaTroy Hawkins in the 6th inning with a two-run homer, his first of the season.
The Good Stuff:
John Buck's hot start has gone on for so long I've run out of hyperbole for it. Buck launched another home run, a solo bomb of Kendrick in the 2nd inning, to give him five for the season and equaling last year's power numbers of every other Mets catcher combined. It also gave New York its longest home run streak to start the season in franchise history: never before have the Mets hit home runs in each of their first nine games.
Lucas Duda braved the wind and the deficit by launching two home runs of his own, the first one going so high and so far that it left not only Citizens Bank Park but also both Veterans Stadium and Shibe Park. Imagine their surprise...
The Mets managed to outhit the Phillies 11-10, with Jordany Valdespin, Mike Baxter, and Ruben Tejada each picking up multi-hit games.
Final Analysis:
Think a three-man rotation would work? Jeremy Hefner is not a starter; he belongs in the bullpen as the long man, as he was kept on the team to do. Unfortunately for him the injuries to Shaun Marcum and Johan Santana have forced him and Aaron Laffey into this position, and they, as well as we, will have to put up with it until Marcum comes back and Zack Wheeler gets his promotion. Until then, the mantra Mets fans will be singing goes like this: "Harvey and Niese and Gee, wouldn't rain be cheque?"
Tough to lose the series to the Phillies but the Mets are still 5-4 and are going to the last-place caliber Minnesota Twins for the weekend. That is, if they don't get snowed in.
A night after New York did a number on Roy Halladay, Philadelphia turned it around and did the same number on Dillon Gee. After retiring the first four batters of the game, Gee let four runs score on six 2nd-inning hits. The seas got rougher in the 3rd as he gave up solo home runs to Ryan Howard, Michael Young, and John Mayberry in the span of four at-bats. Down 7-0, the Mets were sunk just a third of the way into the game.
Except for a couple pitches, Cliff Lee was vintage tonight, allowing 3 runs (2 earned) on 8 hits in 8.2 innings, walking none (typical) and striking out 6 on 106 pitches. Only a couple 9th-inning singles by Marlon Byrd and Justin Turner prevented Lee from getting the 27th out himself.
The Good Stuff:
John Buck can't do it all at the plate, but he sure as heck tried. Hitting cleanup for the first time since about half the guys on the Mets were playing tee-ball, Buck launched another opposite-field home run, this one of the two-run variety in the top of the 4th. His 14 RBIs are miles ahead in the National League, and his fourth home run bring him one shy of matching the combined efforts of all four Mets catchers in 2012 (Josh Thole, Mike Nickeas, Rob Johnson, Kelly Shoppach). Five percent of the season gone, and he's already been worth it.
The New York bullpen did a nice job of keeping the team from getting completely blown away, as Greg Burke, Scott Rice, LaTroy Hawkins, and Brandon Lyon combined for five innings of one-run relief following Gee's departure.
Final Analysis:
Lest we forget, two years ago the Philadelphia Phillies had perhaps the most feared rotation in baseball since the Orioles of the early 1970s. Three-fourths of that rotation are still on the team, and while Roy Halladay is going through some hardships, they still haveLee and Cole Hamels. Mets fans see Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, and Jonathon Niese in their future and are overjoyed at what could be. But in order to get there, they'll have to first overtake the Phillies, who showed through Cliff Lee tonight that they aren't done just yet.
Matt Harvey was pure electric under the lights at Citizens Bank Park, allowing a single earned run on 3 hits in 7 innings, walking 2 and striking out 9 on 110 pitches. Through two starts this season, Mr. Harvey has put a dent in the National League, sporting a 0.64 ERA, 0.57 WHIP, and 19 strikeouts in 14 innings.
Mets fans have been used to seeing Roy Halladay do to them what Matt Harvey did to Philly tonight. But if revenge is a dish best served cold, New York was ready to bust out a Carvel ice cream cake.
Marlon Byrd continued the party he started yesterday with a one-out double in the 2nd. After Lucas Duda was hit by the pitch, the red-hot John Buck went wild once again, hammering a three-run homer to the opposite field. Buck's 12 RBIs through 7 games are a franchise record, topping the great Darryl Strawberry's mark of 11 ribbys in 1987, and the Mets matched another '87 team record by leaving the yard in its first seven games.
Duda added another run in the 3rd inning with a single to score Daniel Murphy. Then in the 5th, Murphy creamed a ground-rule double and came in on David Wright's single. Ike Davis chased Halladay with a single of his own, then four batters later with the bases loaded and two out, Ruben Tejada fought back from 0-2 against Chad Durbin to poke a full count single into left to plate two more runs. When the dust had settled, the New Yorkers had themselves a comfortable 7-1 lead.
Josh Edgin allowed a run and a hit in two relief innings but was able to finish the game, giving the rest of the bullpen a nice night off.
The Bad Stuff:
The leadoff spot in the Mets' order was the only one to go hitless on the night: Kirk Nieuwenhuis started and went 0-3 with a strikeout, and Collin Cowgill didn't fare much better in his two at-bats, striking out once as well.
Final Analysis:
Once a house of horrors for the rest of the NL East, Citizens Bank Park is suddenly becoming a home away from home for the New York Mets, who dominated from start to finish in their first game back in a venue they went 7-2 in last season. The future is now for Matt Harvey, who looked every bit the ace he is expected to be. John Buck continues to light it up for his new team; at this rate he'll match the production of a certain former #44 by the end of the month. All-in-all a phenomenal win in front of a national television audience, who know now the Mets' best days are ahead of them.
Down 3-2 in the bottom of the 9th, Ruben Tejada got hit by a pitch from side-armed closer Steve Cishek. That brought up pinch-hitter Kirk Nieuwenhuis, who laced a single in to left. Aware of Juan Pierre's weak arm, Tejada bolted for third, sliding in safe ahead of a throw that allowed Nieuwenhuis to take an extra base. That brought up Marlon Byrd, who hadn't started the game but had already struck out twice. But with the infield in, and on Cishek's second pitch, Byrd poked a groundball down the third base line to score both runs and made sure everyone knew that for the first time as a New York Met, the Byrd was the word. Justin Turner knew the word and made sure it was properly punctuated with the first whipped cream pie-in-the-face of the young season.
The Mets were outhit 13-5 over the course of the game but were kept in it thanks to stellar relief work from the bullpen. Greg Burke, Josh Edgin, Scott Atchison, LaTroy Hawkins, and Scott Rice combined for 4.2 scoreless innings after starter Aaron Laffey made his exit in the 5th, with Rice picking up his first career W after finishing the 9th.
With the hot-hitting John Buck getting the day off, Anthony Recker filled in nicely both behind the plate and at it, throwing out Donovan Solano on what could've been a passed ball and punching an RBI double to get the Mets on the board in the 5th.
Daniel Murphy launched an absolute bomb to dead center in the 6th inning to get New York within one. It was his second home run of the young season; last year, when he hit just six, it took him until June 17 at Wrigley Field to get his second home run (his first two of the season came in that game).
The Bad Stuff:
Aaron Laffey was less-than-stellar in his first start in a New York uniform, giving up 3 runs on 10 hits in 4.1 innings, walking one and striking 5 on 90 pitches.
The Mets couldn't get anything going against highly-touted prospect Jose Fernandez, who made his major-league debut to the tune of 8 strikeouts on 80 pitches over 5 innings. It was the beginning of a breezy afternoon at the plate for the home team, who struck out 13 times overall.
Final Analysis:
Every time the Fish looked like they would pull away in this game, the Amazin's kept reeling them back in, and with every reel, they felt that maybe, just maybe, they could catch them for good. The usually paper-thin New York bullpen kept the game from getting out of the way all day, and Marlon Byrd's heroics secured the unlikely victory. And as the Mets go out on the road for the first time tomorrow, they take with them a winning record and hopes for a continued strong start.
The first half of the ballgame was reminiscent of last night's ugly affair. Then the Captain got a rally going and the Mets rode the Buck all the way to victory.
John Buck got the scoring going in the 1st inning with a sac fly to right field that scored Mike Baxter. Five innings later with his team down 2-1, he delivered again with a two-run double to plate David Wright and Ike Davis.
Tied 3-3 in the 7th, Mike Baxter got the ball rolling with a one-out walk. He then promptly stole second and went to third on a throwing error by catcher Miguel Olivio. All Daniel Murphy needed to plate him was a bloop single, but instead Murph sent a rocket to the wall in center and ended up on third with an RBI triple. Wright then plated Murphy with a single to cap a 3-4 day at the plate. Wright then followed Baxter's script, stealing second and ending up on third via another Olivio error. Ike Davis was then walked intentionally to get to Buck, who made Miami pay with his second sac fly of the game.
Collin Cowgill provided some insurance in the 8th inning, poking a solo home run into the Party City Deck to lock in place the final line.
The offense came too late for Jonathon Niese, who didn't factor into the decision despite another strong outing: 6 innings, 8 hits, 2 runs (1 earned), 2 walks, and 5 strikeouts on 100 pitches.
Brandon Lyon struck out two to breeze through the 8th inning and Bobby Parnell shut down the Fish 1-2-3 in the 9th to secure the W.
The Bad Stuff:
Scott Atchison coughed up Niese's lead in the 7th inning by putting a baserunner on that Josh Edgin inherited and let score.
Ruben Tejada committed his fourth error in five games, rushing a double play throw in the 5th inning that lead to an unearned run. It took until late June for Tejada to pick up his fourth error last season.
Final Analysis:
John Buck has been as hot as hot can be to start his Mets tenure, hitting .421 with 2 home runs and 9 RBIs and helping Jon Niese and the rotation post a 1.40 ERA in its first five starts. Take him out of the equation and this comfortable 3-2 start for the New Yorkers would likely be closer to 0-5 than the other way around. Buck will eventually cool off, but hopefully not too soon. His team will need all the offense they can get while in pursuit of a winning month.
You knew things were going to go south when the bullpen became a factor, but Ruben Tejada's third error in four games on a Donovan Solano groundball sealed New York's fate. Greg Burke and Scott Rice were helpless to stop the suddenly-potent Miami offense, letting in five runs (two earned) in the top of the 7th inning and turning a 1-0 nail-biter into a 6-0 laugher.
LaTroy Hawkins picked out an insurance policy for the Marlins in the form of one more run in the 9th inning, this one coming on a two-out single by Justin Ruggiano.
The formerly lively Mets offense once again came up cold on this frigid April evening in New York, hitting 2-11 with RISP and stranding a dozen men.
Ike Davis went 0-4 with a walk, run, and strikeout, dropping his average in the first four games to a 2012-esque .063.
The Good Stuff:
Jeremy Hefner proved his worth on the mound, allowing just one run (a 2nd inning solo homer to Greg Dobbs that barely cleared the Mo-Zone) on five hits in six innings, walking two and striking out three on 102 pitches. While it was just against the Marlins, it's an encouraging sign from a man the New Yorkers will unexpectedly have to depend heavily on to get through the season.
Daniel Murphy did his best to get the Mets back into the swing of things with a three-run opposite field shot in the 7th inning.
Other offensive highlights included Jordany Valdespin, who went 2-3 with a walk and a run, and Kirk Nieuwenhuis, who pinch-hit in the 9th and delivered an RBI double.
Arguably the most positive thing about the Mets tonight was the debut of the team's new alternate uniforms: beautiful deep-blue jerseys with bright orange piping and white pants, complete with the classic solid blue caps with the orange "NY" insignia. These new digs were far superior to the black jerseys of the past decade, and hopefully they stay the team's official third uniforms for years to come.
Final Analysis:
The whole evening was accompanied by an uncomfortable sense of deja-vu dating back to last season's great offensive drought. The area the Mets showed the most skill in tonight was making the formerly hapless Miami Marlins find their hap, and their first win of the young season. Whereas at least two of the team's major components (staring pitching, bullpen, offense) needed to show up to win the ballgame, only one third of it was there entirely. The result? A disappointing loss to start the opening weekend.
On the bright side, in four starts this season, the Mets' starters have given up four earned runs in 26 innings. Jeremy Hefner was just as good tonight as Dillon Gee was yesterday and was nearly on par with Jonathon Niese on Monday (no one can touch Matt Harvey's shining performance on Wednesday). If he and his three predecessors in the rotation can keep pitching this well, New York will almost surely compete for a .500 record in 2013.
A common refrain of mine whenever the Mets score a bunch of runs is to say, "Hey now, pace yourselves! We might need those runs later!" Usually this is just a little blip I include in the Bad Stuff on days when there wasn't any Bad to speak of. After the blowouts of the past two games, however, that mantra carries more weight than usual.
John Buck's 9th-inning home run was too little, too late, as the Mets wasted a strong outing by Dillon Gee and a chance at a season-opening sweep, falling to the Padres 2-1.
The Bad Stuff:
After scoring 19 runs over games on Monday and Wednesday, the New Yorkers ran out of gas against Eric Stults and the Friar bullpen, only managing five hits and striking out a whopping 14 times.
The worst culprits of this sudden zombie syndrome at the plate were the most important part of the order, as the tandem of David Wright, Ike Davis, Marlon Byrd, and Lucas Duda combined to go 0-12 with 10 Ks (Daniel Murphy pinch-hit in the 6-hole in the 8th inning, striking out to give the 3-6 hitters 11 Ks on the afternoon.
Jeurys Familia fell well short of potential during his stint in the 8th, walking Chris Denorfia, allowing him to go to third on a Yonder Alonso single, and bringing him home with a wild pitch in the next at-bat. The only out he got was a foul-out to first of Jedd Gyorko, bringing his season ERA "down" from infinity to a less-than-infinite 27.00. The good news? He's got nowhere to go but down. Probably.
The Good Stuff:
(NYDailyNews.com)
Dillon Gee looked impressive in his first start since before last year's All-Star Break, allowing one run on three hits in 6.1 innings with three walks and four strikeouts in 93 pitches. Those three hits were concentrated during a brief lapse by Gee, coming consecutively in the 4th inning.
The Mets' five hits were also concentrated into just two batters, as Justin Turner went 3-4 with a double in his first action of 2013, while John Buck continued to impress, going 2-4 with a monstrous home run off San Diego closer Huston Street in the 9th.
Final Analysis:
Gee showed no signs of rust after returning from a potentially serious blood-clot last July. With the bottom part of the Mets' rotation in question, it will be especially important to have consistency from the top three starters. Though the sample size is admittedly small, the body of work of Gee, Matt Harvey, and Jonathon Niese is so far outstanding.
Buck saved the home team from an embarrassing shutout, proving to be the MVP of the Mets' position players in the first series of 2013. Look for an extended piece on his importance on RisingApple.com soon.
Starting a second straight season with a sweep would have been nice, but all-in-all the opener was a successful one for the Mets, who will look to add to their momentum by thrashing the feckless Fish this weekend. With series against the Marlins, Phillies, Twins, and Rockies coming up, the Amazin's should be expected to at least finish the month of April with a winning record.
The awkward off day did nothing to deter New York's early-season power serge. If anything, it helped to kickstart the power behind three of its most important youngsters.
In the last start of his rookie season, Matt Harvey tossed a brilliant one-hitter against the Phillies. In the first start of his sophomore season, he was even better, turning in 7 one-hit shutout innings with just two walks and a whopping 10 strikeouts on 94 pitches.
Unlike Harvey's 2012 finale, the New York offense got him a steady supply of run support throughout the game.
Lucas Duda opened the scoring with a two-run rocket shot in the 2nd inning that reached the Pepsi Porch in a hurry.
Duda managed another extra-base hit, a double, in the 4th inning, coming home three pitches later when John Buck took Clayton Richard to the opposite field for his first home run in a Met uniform, which made it 4-0.
In the bottom of the 5th, David Wright chopped a hard groundball into the left field corner, scoring Daniel Murphy from first to make it 5-0. The Captain went to third base on the throw, meaning it would only take slumping Ike Davis a flyball to score.
Well, ol' Ike hit a flyball all right. One that kept flying, and flying, and flying...all the way to the Shea Bridge. The Home Run Apple did its thing for the third time, and after an RBI single by Buck to score Marlon Byrd later in the inning, the Mets had a resounding 8-0 lead.
The Bad Stuff:
Just like in Harvey's last start, however, the New York bullpen threatened to derail the whole shebang. Greg Burke let the shutout get away in the 8th inning and San Diego got three runs in the 9th off 40-year-old LaTroy Hawkins (albeit only one was earned)
Hawkins's two unearned runs came as consequence of Ruben Tejada's second error in two days. He made up for it with a nice play to end the game.
Final Analysis:
What else is there to say about Matt Harvey? We're watching an ace develop right before our eyes. With Johan Santana out of the picture and the title of Team Ace up for grabs, Harvey could have it secured by the end of the summer. Lucas Duda has such potential at the plate; it was extraordinarily encouraging to see Big Dude get not just one but two extra-base hits. His Pepsi Porch home run would've been the talk of the town if not for Ike Davis's Shea Bridge moon shot in the 5th. Ike struggled mightily on Opening Day, so it was nice to see him get off the schneid.
The first two games of 2013 have gone about as well as they could have for the Mets: the starters have been locked in, the bullpen hasn't fallen apart yet, and the offense has been on a tear with 19 runs in two games. New York can do a lot for its early-season momentum by finishing off the Padres tomorrow afternoon.
Jonathon Niese's first pitch of the new year resulted in a hard single by Chris Denorfia, one of two baserunners in the inning for San Diego, but Niese got out of the jam unscathed. The makeshift rotation frontrunner would not surrender much more on the afternoon, allowing 2 runs on 4 hits in 6.2 innings, walking a pair and striking out 4 on 101 pitches.
New York's first run of 2013 came the way so many did in 2012: clutch hitting and pure hustle. With John Buck on first after a two-out walk in the 2nd inning, Ruben Tejada slashed an Edinson Volquez fastball into the left field corner. The burly catcher barreled his way around the bases, charging towards the plate on orders from Tim Teufel. The throw home was well off-line as Buck slid home, scoring on Tejada's double. It was the first of many runs for the home team on this day.
In the 7th, a man named Collin had a fever, and the only prescription was more Cowgill. With two down and runners everywhere, the leadoff center fielder took a 2-2 fastball from Brad Brach and really explored the space in left field (there will be many, many more of these). Cowgill was hustling so hard he didn't even notice the umpires had signaled for a home run; it took him until third base to start his glorious trot. All it meant is the New Yorkers got their 11th run across the plate all the more faster, turning what was already a blowout into a bona fide laugher and a good time all around for the Citi Field sellout crowd of 41,053.
The Mets' bullpen combined for 2.1 hitless inning of relief, as Brandon Lyon finished off the 7th, Scott Atchison blew through the 8th, and Scott Rice struck out two in a 1-2-3 9th, his first major league action after 14 long years in the minors.
The Bad Stuff:
Ike Davis and Lucas Duda combined to go 0-7 with 5 strikeouts. Davis accounted for 4 of those Ks, sparking worries he may regress into his first-half mode from 2012.
Final Analysis: The Mets' Opening Day dominance continued in their 52nd season, as they improved to 34-18 in seasons' first games, good for a far-and away league-best .654 winning percentage. Terry Collins got his team to play with hustle and intensity as they took care of business against a weaker Padres squad. Sure, it's only one game, and the team probably won't stay in first place much longer, but as I've said before, all that matters is the New York Mets won today. All they have to focus on, as do we, is winning tomorrow. If we all can do that, this supposed lost season will become an Amazin' one. MM
Dust off those gloves, sharpen those spikes, and brace yourself for another exciting(?) season of New York Mets baseball! Welcome back to Midwestern Met, where for the third straight season I'll bring you game-by-game coverage of your favorite team and mine. I've already done a bunch of Mets-specific analysis on Rising Apple, and you can find my predictions of the team's Opening Day roster and record at the end of the year by clicking on the respective links. Below you will find extended analysis of other predictions I've made about the rest of the Show, 2013 edition.
Division Standings AL East 1. Toronto
2. Tampa Bay
3. Baltimore
4. NY Yankees
5. Boston
The Blue Jays were the busiest team in all of baseball in the offseason and are
also the most improved. Two former Mets icons, R.A. Dickey and Jose Reyes, will
lead the team back to the playoffs for the first time in 20 years. Second place
is a tossup: the Rays and Orioles will fight neck and neck for the Wild Cards,
but it will be tough for Baltimore to duplicate its luck in one-run games. It's
refreshing to see the Yankees on the edge for the first time since before the
'94 strike; with the roster torn apart by injuries and Hal Steinbrenner
suddenly running his team like an austere Eurozone country, the Bronx Bombers
will struggle to finish with a winning record, let alone
make the playoffs. The only reason they stay out of the basement is a
Boston team still too dysfunctional to compete in baseball's strongest
division.
AL Central 1. Detroit
2. Cleveland
3. Kansas City
4. Chi White Sox
5. Minnesota
The Tigers and Twins are almost guaranteed to bookend the AL Central, while the
middle three are pretty much interchangeable. The Indians did more work in the
offseason and the Royals are probably still a year away from really competing,
but KC can still leapfrog into second if their pitching steps it up.
AL West 1. LA Angels
2. Texas
3. Oakland
4. Seattle
5. Houston
It's hard to pick against the team with Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, and now Josh
Hamilton. The Angels are by far the presumptive western favorites going into
the season, but they could falter due to sky-high expectations. The Rangers
have enough backlogged talent that they can cushion the blow of losing
Hamilton, but it will take some fighting to get one of the Wild Cards. Oakland
as always has the potential to sneak up on everyone, but that doesn't mean they
should be expected to finish higher than third; possible, far from probable.
Seattle's biggest offseason acquisition was Jason Bay, which in summary says
that if there were still four teams in this division they would finish in the
basement. Alas, the Astros are an absolute mess and it will show in their first
year in the American League.
NL East 1. Washington
2. Atlanta
3. Philadelphia
4. NY Mets
5. Miami
We've dissected this division constantly on Rising Apple, and the general
consensus is as follows. The Braves are in great shape but the Nationals are
too talented not to finish at the top. The Phillies are old, but are probably
comfortable in third because of the Mets' and Marlins' problems. If the Mets
can get it together they could challenge for third if Philly's vets all break a
hip. The Fish are closer to the Florida State League than the National League,
so let's leave it at that.
NL Central 1. Cincinnati
2. Pittsburgh
3. St. Louis
4. Milwaukee
5. Chi Cubs
If Aroldis Chapman reduces every game to just eight innings, the Reds could run
away with the Central. The Pirates have made improvements every year, and while
they've collapsed the last two seasons, they've done so later each time. This
time if they do begin to collapse, it will happen long after they've secured
their first winning record since Barry Bonds played for the team. The Cardinals
are always solid and won't finish below .500. The Brewers aren't anything
special, but the hapless Cubbies will keep them out of last place.
NL West 1. San Francisco
2. Los Angeles
3. San Diego
4. Arizona
5. Colorado
It's nothing but a two-horse race out West between the defending champs and the
free spenders, but a combination of strong pitching by the Bay and crushing
expectations at Chavez Ravine will result in another one-two finish by the
Giants and Dodgers. SF can sew it up if Tim Lincecum is back to his old self.
As for the bottom feeders, the Diamondbacks did more to tear themselves down in
the offseason than did the Padres. The Rockies are buried under snowfall and
won't be dug out until about the second round of the Home Run Derby at Citi
Field.
The defending Triple Crown is in the prime of his career and now has a second
layer of insurance behind him in the form of Victor Martinez, who will follow
Prince Fielder in the Tigers' batting order. In a World Series or Bust season
in Motown, a repeat MVP performance from Miggy bring them close. (Repeat Triple
Crown not guaranteed)
NL MVP: Joey Votto (Cincinnati)
Votto's MVP-caliber 2012 was crippled by injury, but the 29-year-old is hungry
after blowing a playoff lead to the Giants last October. Expect another fine
performance from the National League's three-time defending OBP champion.
AL Cy Young: Jered Weaver (LA Angels)
Weaver was worthy of the Cy Young last season, leading the AL with 20 wins. He
will benefit from the knowledge of a strong lineup behind him; the Angels' bats
will allow him to pitch without a lot of stress, allowing this laid-back
California dude to cruise to something more than just a fourth consecutive
top-five finish.
NL Cy Young: Steven Strasburg (Washington)
The Nationals are about to unleash the 24-year-old for what will be his first
"full" season in the majors. Watch out, majors.
AL Rookie of the Year: Mike Olt (Texas)
The Rangers need a bat to fill in for the loss of Josh Hamilton. Expect Olt to
be that bat before Memorial Day, if not on Opening Day.
NL Rookie of the Year: Travis d'Arnaud (NY Mets)
Wishful thinking, perhaps, but Sandy Alderson had to know he was getting
something good for R.A. Dickey. d'Arnaud is the next can't-miss catcher and
will help the Mets put a strong foundation in for the future.
AL Manager of the Year: John Gibbons (Toronto)
Gibbons has inherited loads of talent, and if he can take the Blue Jays back to
the playoffs for the first time in 20 years in his first season back, it will
be tough to give MOTY to anyone else.
NL Manager of the Year: Clint Hurdle (Pittsburgh)
Hurdle will face stiff competition from Davey Johnson, Fredi Gonzalez, and
Bruce Bochy, but all he needs is for his Pirates to finish with at least 82
wins - a winning record. The ceiling is low enough, and Pittsburgh is finally
good enough.
Playoffs and World Series American League Wild Card: Rays over RangersALDS: Tigers over Rays, 3-1; Blue Jays over Angels, 3-2ALCS: Tigers over Blue Jays, 4-3
Tampa Bay will have the advantage of playing in baseball's toughest division, but Detroit's talent and experience will prove too much. Toronto is postseason hungry and will overcome an explosive but pitching-short Los Angeles of Anaheim (of California of United States of North America of Earth). As good as R.A. Dickey is, his famous knuckleball will falter in the bitter Michigan October cold.
National League Wild Card: Braves over PiratesNLDS: Nationals over Braves, 3-2; Reds over Giants, 3-1NLCS: Nationals over Reds, 4-2
The National League playoffs will be Revenge Tour '13. Atlanta will be out for redemption after last season's outfield fly debacle, but Washington's pitching staff and revenge factor will be far greater. Cincinnati will finally overcome leading a series and put away San Francisco. While Aroldis Chapman has the 9th inning thoroughly covered, Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmerman, Rafael Soriano, and company have every single inning covered.
World Series Tigers over Nationals, 4-3
In an exquisitely exciting Fall Classic, Detroit's postseason experience will finally pay off, and a return trip to the final round will finally give Motown another World Series title.
Check back on Opening Day for a recap of the Mets' first excursion of 2013.
